Brexit, Elections, and population in 2016

Define: “effective political unit”

If politics is the name we give to a group of people making decisions that affect all the members of that group, then we can use “effective political unit” (EPU) as a catch-all name to reference that group.

Your household is an EPU. Your local sports team is an EPU. Your neighborhood and your city are both EPUs, as is your country, and each of your online communities.

We can get a rough feel for the relative size of an EPU by adding the search term "population" and hitting the "I'm feeling lucky" button on google:

EPU	Size (million people)
UK	65
California	35
Scotland	5
Quebec	8
London (England)	8
London (Ontario)	0.5
You	0.000001
Me	0.000001
You & Me together	0.000002
USA	320
North America (*)	580
Singapore	6
OECD (*)	560
China	1350
Eve Online	0.4
Alberta	4
New Zealand	4
Islam	1600
World	7500
Tokyo	14

(*) The OECD includes all of North America, so as with any "I'm feeling lucky" google search, the error bars are large.

A natural question to ask: "Given each Effective Political Unit is a group of people making decisions, what size of EPU is the most successful?" It's hard to pick an exact number, but like many trends associated with people, it's increasing over time, and the rate of increase is increasing:

EPU	Size (million people)	Year
Toba Catastrophe	0.07	70,000 BCE
Nomadic tribe	0.001	prehistory
Ancient Greece	5	400 BCE
Ptolemaic Egypt	7	300 BCE
Han dynasty	57	2 CE
Ancient Rome (peak)	60	160 CE
Mayan city	0.1	700 CE
Walmart Employees	2	2015 CE

2016

A vote for a protectionist like #Trump favors smaller (USA, 320) over #Clinton's larger (World, 7500).

A #brexit vote favors smaller (UK, 65) over #remain's larger (EU, 500).

A #califrexit (California, 35) is even smaller still.

Which brings us back to the core question of this blogpost: What size of EPU is the most successful?

Historically, every EPU has had a maximum size, once it extends past that point, it is doomed to collapse. At the same time, history is filled with EPUs that were too small, and were out-competed by slightly larger EPUs which were more effective.


It's a classic value judgement.

As social animals, we weigh the perceived risks and benefits between larger EPUs and smaller EPUs, and make a call, then find a post-hoc rationalization for our decision.

What I find fascinating is the schism between younger voters and older voters. If you look into the various exit polls around the world, a clear trend starts to emerge: Older voters seem to be favoring the 10MM-50MM range, while younger voters seem to be consistently voting in support of larger and larger EPUs.

What does it all mean? At the risk of rampant speculation, do younger voters have more confidence in technology to enable larger and larger EPUs? Do older voters have more hands on experience with large EPUs getting out of control and collapsing? I really have nothing to back up either of those statements, but it sure is fun to make sweeping generalizations :D

Let me know your thoughts in the comments down below!

Cheapest 3D Printer

My latest obsession is trying to build a 3D printer for as cheap as possible.

Partly it's because I believe 3D printing is a disruptive technology. The lower the cost for making a 3D printer, the more people will have access to the technology, and sooner the disruption will take place.

And partly, it's because I'm just really really cheap.

Low Cost

What does low cost really mean? One obvious way is to look at the price of something if we were to buy it new in a shop. If we only source new parts and new materials, we're going to have a difficult time creating something truly low cost.

My strategy is different. I'm going to try and get as many of the source materials as possible for "zero dollars."

Consider old car tyres. Any time you can recycle the rubber from an old car tyre into a seesaw or a swing, or into building materials or to protect a wharf, then the cost of that rubber is effectively "zero dollars."

That's why the core design elements of my 3D printer are going to be fishing line and lego. Two very cheap substances if you source them the right way.

Fishing Line

Nylon fishing line is an amazing substance. It's strong. Durable. Inexpensive. It's readily available everywhere around the globe. And if you need small quantities, you can often obtain it for "zero dollars". You probably already have some.

Lego

Lego is an amazing substance. It's available everywhere. It's manufactured to extremely high tolerances. It's consistent across time and place. It comes in a variety of colors. It's durable.
While lego might not be cheap, you can often *borrow* lego for "zero dollars" by using the magic words "I'm trying to make a 3D printer out of lego."
Once your print run is complete, you can simply disassemble the lego and return it to it's previous state.

Calibration Problem

When I look at the designs for existing 3D printers, one of the biggest design considerations seems to be finding out where the extrusion point is in relation to the "bed". Existing designs carefully measure the motion of the motors, try really hard to make the frame rigid, and then have lots of complicated software to try and calculate where exactly the filament is being deposited.

Ack, too difficult.

Why go through all the calculation, when you can measure directly?

My plan is to use the camera on an Android tablet to see where the bed is, and, at the same time, to see where the print head is. If it needs to move to the left, well, the tablet will keep the motors spinning until it lines up. Too far to the right? no problem, spin the motors the other way until it matches. Checkmate calibration problem!

OpenCV

Oh, and remember our lego? We know exactly how large a block is in the real world, so we can measure off distance in our 2D camera space by placing a known lego calibration object made with a few different known colors.

This way it doesn't matter if our fishing line stretches during the course of the print, or our lego gets bumped half way through, or the ambient temperature changes which make the layers a tiny bit thinner.. no problem, the camera on the android tablet sees all.

And how much does it cost for an Android tablet? "zero dollars." You just have to use the magic words: "Can I borrow your Android tablet to make a 3D printer?"

Next Steps

I've already starting on version 1 of the prototype. Watch this space.

Time Pressure

A buddy of mine was sharing some cool ideas for a new game when we got to talking about Time Pressure. "Blog post!” I thought!

Time Pressure in Games

If you think of classic games, like Chess, or Tennis, you'll find that most classic games have some sort of time pressure mechanic. A skilled player can apply this pressure to increase the number of “unforced errors” of their opponent.



A great example of time pressure in Ice Hockey is the “Power Play”. When a player commits a penalty, they're sent to the penalty box, giving a 5-4 player advantage on the ice to the other team. As the penalty timer ticks down to zero, the attacking team is under increasing pressure to score a goal and take advantage of the situation.

For a hockey fan, watching at home on TV, the “Power Play” also increases pressure. Either there will be a goal, or the attacking team will make a mistake and squander the opportunity. In either case, the pressure is on the spectator to keenly observe and interpret the action before the penalty clock runs down to zero.

In the casual games, “Dumb Ways To Die” and “WarioWare”, the player must complete amusing tasks, but under tighter and tighter time constraints. At least in the early stages of play, the player actions would be easy to do, if not for the added pressure that comes from the timer.

Curiously, in these types of games, as the player skill increases, the gameplay shifts and becomes more reaction and twitch based. When played at this level, the time pressure is almost completely removed. It's similar to the way the rich, multi layered time pressures in a game like Tennis are largely absent from Ping Pong, which is essentially the twitch-based version of the same game.


My mobile game, ScooterBoy, is a mashup between two popular genres, the endless runner and slicing games. The twist is that when the player slices a spore to get points and combos, the same action also causes ScooterBoy to jump/duck/change lanes. In essence, you're playing two different games simultaneously. For skilled ScooterBoy players, the endless runner determines the length of time for each game, while it's your ability to make combos in the slicing game which most affect your score. In this way, in ScooterBoy, the endless runner acts to apply time pressure on the slicing game.

Time Pressure == A Complication

The common theme across all of these games is that time pressure adds a complication to an already fun activity.

As a game designer, we can turn this observation inside out. If we know that adding time pressure is equivalent to adding a complication, then we are obliged to verify that our game design is still fun, even when the time pressure is removed.

Indeed, if we're following the (so called) “Rational Game Design” principles, we should be able to strip our game down to it's core, removing all the complications... Then we add the complications back in, one at a time and in combinations, in order to maximise player enjoyment.

Under this framework, Time Pressure is just one of many different types of complications we could add, and this means (in general) we can assume a priori, that we could add and remove Time Pressure at any time to our game design, without affecting the strength of the design itself.

Phrased another way, Time Pressure acts as a multiplier to increases the intensity of your underlying experience.

Time Pressure and Difficulty

Lets drill down to the first few moments of your game. First impressions. In free-to-play, these first few minutes of gameplay is where you make or lose your players.

For players familiar with your genre, the time pressure does nothing. They zip through the first few levels with perfect scores, and your effort implementing and balancing the time pressure mechanic has contributed nothing.

For less skilled players, those unfamiliar with your genre, the time pressure adds confusion and failure, additional UI, and worst of all, the pressure increases unforced errors and perceived difficulty. All your hard work to implement time pressure serves to drive off more casual players.

A time-pressure mechanic (generally) makes things *harder* for weaker players, and leaves stronger players unchanged.

This is the exact opposite of how difficulty scaling is supposed to work.

You can compound this disaster by awarding the player a power-up for completing a level in a short amount of time. Here you are explicitly making the game easier for your most skilled players.

Sandbox games with broad market appeal, I'm thinking games like “Disney Infinity” and “Grand Theft Auto” here, commonly avoid these traps by making time pressure optional. There are timed challenges on the map which the player can initiate, but the player isn't required to complete them to advance the player's personal narrative.

Time Pressure as Exotic gameplay

So how do us Indies make time pressure fresh and original? We can take inspiration from some recent games which use the passage of time to completely subvert conventional notions of gameplay.


At first glance, “Braid” appears to be a platformer, but it's actually a puzzle game that explores all manner of time based mechanics.

I won't spoil it for you, but “Five Nights At Freddies” has some amazing time-pressure mechanics where the player has extremely minimal interaction with the game.

I'm sure there's lots more examples you can share with us in the comments below.

Time Pressure, it's been done! Time to do something different.

Random

Lately, I've been tuning the "Drop-Rate" of pickups in Scooter Boy.  It's actually a lot like handing out candy at Halloween.

Allow me to use this handy diagram to explain:

Too little Candy	Too much Candy
Not enough candy to go 'round - some people walk away empty handed.	Everyone is all full of sugary goodness, and they don't want any more.

But that's not actually what I wanted to talk about today.

I wanted to talk about Pigeons.

The Pigeon Food Dance

There was a famous set of experiments back in the '30s that revolved around withholding candyfood from pigeons.  In one of these experiments, the amount of time between successive drops was random. It turns out that each of the pigeons developed a (unique) ritualistic food dance. In happy pigeon land, it was the completion of the dance which caused the food to appear.

Now the curious thing was, the time it took for the pigeon to complete the dance was slightly longer than the average time between drops.

So when the pigeon completed the dance, there was a better than 50/50 chance of getting food.  And if not, well repeating the dance a second time would surely do it!

(Have you ever timed how long it takes to reboot your computer when you've got Tech Support on the phone?) 

Random Drop Rates

For most of Scooter Boy's development,  I've been using random drop rates.  Power ups would appear, seemingly at random.  Sometimes you'd get lots, and sometimes you'd go ages without seeing any.

Worse still, changing the drop rate, by changing the percentage of a drop, was very clumsy. You'd double or quadruple the drop rate, play the game, and the results would be... well ... random... There was no way to tell if your change was making the game better.

In short, random drops, just aren't fun!

A Drop Rate Schedule

I'm in the process of changing all those drop-rate percentages into times. 30±10 seconds between drops.  Or 120±60.  It's so much more measurable. And it turns out, it's a lot more fun too.  As a player, it feels like the powerups are rewarding your effort.

So down with Mathematical Randomness! Lets make the game match the player's expectations. Lets put the fun first!

Pinata!

Any game of appreciable size needs a mini-game, and this one is ours!

We're calling it the "Treasure Mushroom".  Use the multi-touch to knock the piñata, then collect the treasures that are hidden inside!

It's a great way to give the player a random reward without resorting to a gambling metaphor like a roulette wheel or slot machine.

What makes a good mini-game?

I'm a big believer in the so called "Rational Game Design" approach.  In particular, the variety matrix. It suggests you can break down your game into a number of axes, such as time-pressure, activity, space modifier, etc.

It then provides a recipe for combining those axes into novel variations.  This aids the game designer's evaluation process and helps find the combinations which work the best.

Under this framework, the mini-game is part of "exotic gameplay".  It changes the pace of the game by  giving the player a new challenge, or a much needed break.

The mini-game must also be very easy to learn, and never punish the player, only reward.

Lastly, your mini-game must remain thematically similar to your main game.  In "ScooterBoy", both the main-game and the mini-game have 'collecting' as a central theme.

What's your favourite/least-favourite mini games? Why not let me know in the comments below?

Easy Mode Unlocked

One of the hardest thing to do when making a game, is to balance the difficulty.

Of course, at the start, you want your game to be as accessible as possible.  Then, over time, as the player progresses, you smoothly ramp up the difficulty to keep the player engaged.

Today I wanted to focus on the beginning of that : Just how easy is easy?

Easy for Me

The natural instinct of the indie developer is to make the first level really easy for themselves.  It turns out that's not a fair test.  You've been playing the game for a while now and you know all the controls and every obstacle.  You need to look elsewhere, to someone who's never played the game before.

Easy for You

The next step is to focus test.  Find everyone you know, especially your friends, who don't play games that much.  And then make it easy for them.  As you go through this process you'll find your game becomes more and more accessible and the learning curve becomes more and more navigable.

Easy for Everyone

But can we do even better than that?

If you watch young kids playing games on a tablet, you'll know how engaging they can be.  And frustrating too, with the constant restarts, and the accidental taps on adverts and in-game consumables.

Zen Arcade

In keeping with this spirit, this morning I added a special "Zen Arcade" mode to my next game:

There's no enemies or time pressure.  There's no way to lose.  It's just a calming, peaceful experience that anyone can play and enjoy.

I even made the pause button a little smaller to avoid accidental clicks, and removed the options to use the power ups.

What tips and tricks do you use to increase accessibility of your game?  Why not let me know in the comments below!